Picture courtesy -BBC

China held its 20th Communist Party Congress as customary for its political system. The most striking of the entire event was not the policies that were adopted highlighting the security, economic & political vision of Communist China for the 21st century. But the forceful removal of the former part boss & country’s former president Hu Jintao in broad day light. It was obvious that the event was well choreographed, meant for a global audience & to be recycled in all the news cycles- rinse & repeat . But most importantly it was the ominous message of what will be unfolding in the global arena in near short term basis.

Hu was a symbol of a different China. A China that was more open to the West like his predecessors Deng Xiaoping , Jiang Zemin . His China was a steadfast believer of rapprochement with Taiwan in means of dialogue. During his tenure, the opening of business to air travel to negotiation platforms stood by his principles in achieving the one China policy. 

Hu Jiantoas forceful removal from the party congress for the eyes of the whole world thus represents the departure of those approaches. The approach of working closely with the West as well as trusting on negotiations for settling the dispute with Taiwan will effectively come to an end. 

The US led collective west is against China on all fronts. From dispatching House speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan to provocative passage of military vessels through the Taiwan  straits to the embargo on the chip industry to weapon sales to Taiwan , the confrontation has no limits. To add to the injury while putting pressure on Beijing relentlessly , the west expects China to be on board its anti Russian mechanisms. 

What we could predict with this backdrop is that China will act in achieving its strategic objectives sooner than later. They will opt for a path that will be completely different from Hu Jintao. There were various predictions that stipulated the time of a possible Chinese invasion on Taiwan. Every indication was more towards the end of this decade.

But China might move on as early as the end of this year. While this is just a speculation , there are reasons to make such. In the European theater, Russians have started to win back the momentum. With the newly mobilized military groups, they could probably bring Odessa, Mykolaiv & Kharkov under their control. European weapons stocks have depleted , eroded at an alarming rate. Production of the new system is going to be costlier , longer & difficult since Europe has to choose between eating & heating. The United Kingdom is in great chaos & the population has less appetite for any new conflict. Domestic issues seem far more urgent & important. Brits are in dire need of a leader to fix the domestic mess rather than the international chaos. America is vastly preoccupied in Ukraine. They have sacrificed a significant portion of their resources in supporting kiev. Their military supplies & stocks  are being used, destroyed in Ukraine faster than all the middle eatern wars. That makes it harder for Amercans at this point to fight another multi pronged war with a sophisticated , armed to the teeth enmity with enormous, untested capacities. Russia is not dettered & willing to fight NATO if it comes to that. This makes fighting against near peer enemies in two ends of the world a nightmare for the USA.

On the economic front, the resource rich countries are clearly in control.OPEC has made its stance as a force that has no interest in aligning with US interest any longer. The proposed Russian oil price cap is almost dead on water. Russia’s economy is still in form while the entirety of the EU is plunging into a prolonged recession. Pro Ukrainian leaders are slowly but steadily getting ousted in the EU & far right movements are crawling in. 

Meanwhile China has slowly accumulated forces. Secured enough supplies of uninterrupted energy. Has won conscious support in many global groupings. Namely the BRICS & Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Entered into a number of mechanisms with global powers in using national currencies for transactions. The war in Ukraine & the unbelievable number of sanctions on Russia has given the greatest case study in the history for China to see the capabilities as well as the limitations of the west. How Russia & the world is coping with the new economic , political reality is what the Chinese policy makers must be taking into account. 

With the approaching winter many things would take turns. It will bring more chaos to Europe & be bad for Urkainians in defending their country. Midterm elections seem to be hanging in the balance in America. With such chaos , China has probably the opportunity of a lifetime to reach the shores of Taiwan. If one thing is clear with regards to conflicts, looking at the Russia-Ukraine , the timing seems to play a major role. A role that is as important as the weapons systems. 

Additionally there seems to be an ideological war at play. America led west fights to preserve the rules based unipolar system. Russia along with China are determined to change that for good and fighting hard to create a multipolar system. They are coordinating in various different ways to achieve this. When a conflict reaches a level of ideology , it gives a platform for like minded states to join hands. Shanghai Cooperation Organization – BRICS are now at forefront with G7 led west. Taiwan will mark the culmination of this conflict. Just like HU Jintao was forced out of the power game, the unipolar world is fighting its last battle for survival. 

By Dhanuka Dickwella

Graduated from the university of Colombo with a masters in International Relations. Have worked in a number of fields including travel, event management & political campaign management. Contributed to social welfare , youth upbringing & education through my own social foundation. Was a self made - grassroot politician. Held the position of a deputy chair of a political caucus , the chair of the graduates association of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party in the District of Kegalle. Served the people of Kegalle District as a council member. Passionate writer, blogger & political analyst. Currently working as a strategist for a global digital health initiative. A father of a loving daughter. Above all - a proud & a patriotic Sri Lankan.

158 thoughts on “End of the Old World”
  1. What the author did not discuss, perhaps that will be for another piece, is the consequences of a U.S. defeat in the Pacific. That seems the most likely outcome of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. It’s extremely difficult for the U.S. Government to re-supply and reinforce Taiwan from 7,000 miles away. Taiwan is only about 110 miles away from the Chinese coast, a short distance.

    If the U.S. Government just complains to the misbegotten UN, imposes sanctions and bellows about “democracy” or some such stupidity but does not come to the defense of Taiwan, that will rightly be seen as a defeat. If the U.S. Government fights for Taiwan it is likely to lose that fight. Taiwan is thousands of miles from the U.S., military stocks are depleted because of Ukraine, China doesn’t have to fear Russia on its norther border and the U.S. military is short staffed. Add to that the U.S. public will not support another war thousands of miles from home leaving the U.S. Government without public support and discredited by defeat.

    No doubt China would proffer an olive branch and generous terms after conquering Taiwan but the U.S. Government, without effective foreign support, held in contempt at home but possessing a formidable nuclear arsenal would be the most dangerous and irrational force in the world by that time.

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